Black Widow could finally provide the full context for Howard Stark's assassination by the Winter Soldier. Marvel has long been under pressure to release a solo Black Widow film, starring Scarlett Johansson as Natasha Romanoff. That is finally becoming a reality, but in the strangest way; the film is a step back into the MCU timeline, set shortly after the events of Captain America: Civil War, and well ahead of Black Widow's death in Avengers: Endgame.
Naturally, viewers have been eager to learn just how Black Widow connects to the rest of the MCU. It's expected to tie up a lot of loose threads, as well as serving as a launchpad for some of Marvel's Phase 4 plans, presumably with Florence Pugh's Yelena Belova taking over as Black Widow in Natasha's honor. But there are also likely connections to the past, and curiously they appear to involve Tony Stark. There have been reports Robert Downey Jr. will appear in Black Widow, reprising the role of Iron Man. Assuming these are correct, this will have been an expensive cameo, so there must be some plot reason for it.
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Disney may have just offered an important clue in official Black Widow character summaries published by Disney Latino. They subtly hint Black Widow may well reveal the truth about Howard Stark's death in 1991, completing a story arc that's been running through the MCU since its inception.
Black Widow will introduce a number of Natasha's old allies, whom she worked alongside before she ever wound up on SHIELD's radar. One of them is David Harbour's Red Guardian, who in the comics is the Russian equivalent to Captain America. David Harbour has confirmed that will be the case in the MCU as well, although Red Guardian will be well past his prime. "So he gets back into his superhero outfit, and it still fits, but it’s a little tighter than before," Harbour observed in one interview. "I think the great thing about the Red Guardian is he really is – he was the Captain America of his day for Russia. And he was the great hope of Russia, in a certain sense." The new character briefings provide context for that quote. According to Disney Latino, Red Guardian was a super soldier and spy who lived a life of triumph during the Cold War.
This is crucial new information, suggesting the MCU's Cold War was something of a superhero arms race. On the American side, there were heroes such as Ant-Man and the Wasp, whose Cold War exploits have been exploited in flashbacks and tie-in comics. Meanwhile, Russia successfully created at least one super soldier, Red Guardian, and he clearly served the same kind of function as Captain America in Captain America: The First Avenger. He was clad in a bright symbolic outfit, transformed into a rallying cry for Russia's armies, while still serving on the front lines of the Cold War alongside spies from the Red Room.
The creation of Red Guardian would have been an important coup for the USSR, because according to The Incredible Hulk the United States was never able to duplicate the process and create another Steve Rogers. The Falcon & The Winter Soldier promises to reveal more of America's attempts to recreate Captain America, with Sam Wilson expected to discover Isaiah Bradley, the first black Captain America from the comics. He was one of the few unwilling test subjects to survive America's super-soldier experiments, but he was court-martialled and imprisoned because - as a black man - he had dared to disobey orders and suit up as Captain America.
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Russia had succeeded where America had failed; they had created at least one new super-soldier. No doubt US spies would be very keen indeed to get their hands on samples of the Russian super-soldier serum, and obtaining it would have been a top priority for SHIELD in particular, who appear to have played a prominent role in the MCU's Cold War. In the real world, the collapse of the Soviet Union led to the birth of a black market in illicit weapons, including nuclear bomb-grade uranium and plutonium, and dirty-bomb isotopes like cesium and iridium. This market began to form in 1991, and grew exponentially from December 1991. It continues into the present day, and in 2005 the US supported the formation of a special police force dedicated to shutting it down.
In the MCU, of course, there's no reason to assume the black market was limited to nuclear weapons. It could have also involved the sale of war materiel from the superhero arms race, including samples of the super-soldier serum. One such sample could well have been acquired by Howard Stark. That would explain why he suddenly had samples of the super-soldier serum in December 1991, coincidentally right when the black market would have been expanding.
This would be the final piece in the jigsaw puzzle that is Howard Stark's death. Because the super-soldier serum had been sold on the black market, Howard Stark would have competed with others in a bidding war to get his hands on it; one of his competitors could have been Hydra, explaining how they knew he had it. When they lost the bid, Hydra decided to take drastic measures, and - as shown in Captain America: The Winter Soldier - they thawed out the Winter Soldier, and assigned Bucky Barnes to assassinate Howard and Maria Stark before SHIELD could analyze the sample. And so Hydra began to conduct their own experiments using the Russian sample retrieved by the Winter Soldier, although those were less than successful.
This theory would fit with all the facts in the MCU, and - assuming Natasha Romanoff puts the pieces together in Black Widow - it could well explain Tony Stark's rumored cameo. Tony Stark may have blamed Captain America for not telling him the truth about his father's death in Captain America: Civil War, but Natasha was in on the secret as well. This time, she could resolve to go to Stark and let him know what she has discovered. And so, at last, Black Widow could see Tony Stark finally learn the full truth about Howard Stark's assassination.
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